ISCA Economic Outlook

The ISCA Economic Outlook sessions are a series of events organised to provide participants with regular updates on the macroeconomic situation around the globe.

UPCOMING ECONOMIC OUTLOOK SESSION

Stay tuned for more information. If you would like us to contact you for the next session, kindly drop us an email at paib@isca.org.sg


PAST 
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK SESSIONS
2017
November 2017:

Programme Outline

8:30am

Breakfast / Registration

9:00am

Welcome Address

by: Lee Wai Fai, Chairman, ISCA CFO Committee & Group CFO, UOB Ltd

9:05am

A Focus on Economic Developments and Initiatives in China

The 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China opened on 18 October. Besides anticipated changes to the leadership of the party, we can also expect the congress to shed more light on China’s economic, social, cultural, political and foreign policies for the next 5 years. Our speaker from OCBC will zoom in on the Chinese economy and elaborate on the important developments and initiatives that are taking place in China, and how it may have an impact on our businesses.

Speaker:

-          Tommy Xie, Head of Greater China Research, OCBC Bank

10:05am

Global Outlook – Interest Rates on the Rise?

  • An overview of the global economic growth
  • An overview of the shifting monetary stance of the major central banks, and its impacts on asset allocation
  • What will be the key issues to watch in 2018?

Speaker:

-          Terence Wu, Economist, OCBC Bank

11:00am

Programme Ends

 

May 2017:

Programme Outline

8:30am

Breakfast / Registration

9:00am

Welcome Address

9:05am

2017 Economic & Financial Outlook

For now it looks like the global economy has started 2017 on an encouragingly robust footing if the latest batch of macro data releases is any guide. Based on Markit’s Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) survey, 1Q17 is on course to be the best for two years. According to Markit’s latest surveys, global business optimism is meanwhile running at its highest since mid-2014, with an improved mood seen in all major developed economies. While encouraged by the current upswing, Mr Song will be discussing the sustainability of this uptick.

Speaker:

-          Mr Song Seng Wun, Director/Economist, CIMB Private Banking

10:05am

Emerging Themes for the Next 5 Years

If you could only invest in 5 themes over the next 5 years, what would they be & why? We’ll be exploring the following themes, and discuss why they are worth keeping tabs on:

Crypto Currencies / Blockchain: They are here to stay & why this is long overdue

Autonomous Vehicles: Biggest disrupter on transportation since the steam engine

Demographics: We’ve often heard of dividends, but what of demographic taxes

Virtual & Augmented Reality: Why and how is VR/AR going to disrupt multiple landscapes

Internet of Things: Implications of extreme connectivity, and the thrills & fears that come along

Speaker:

-     Mr Kay Van-Petersen, Global Macro Strategist, Saxo Capital Markets

11.00am

Q&A Session

-     Mr Song Seng Wun, Director/Economist, CIMB Private Banking

-     Mr Kay Van-Petersen, Global Macro Strategist, Saxo Capital Markets

11:30am

Programme Ends

2016
November 2016:

Programme Outline

8:30am

Breakfast / Registration

9:00am

Welcome Address

9:05am

Finding Certainty in an Uncertain World

Topics covered:

1)    Market update on post-Brexit referendum

2)    Is monetary easing still effective?

3)    When will the Fed resume its rate hike cycle?

4)    Outlook on currency and interest rate

5)    Will China and the RMB become a source of uncertainty for the region?

Speaker:

-          Mr Xie Dongming, Economist, Vice President, OCBC Bank

9:50am

Finding Solace in Commodities

Topics covered:

1)    What will OPEC do?

2)    The crude oil rebalancing story in 2017

3)    Base metals to shine at last?

4)    Case for gold especially in uncertain times

5)    Agricultural products amid weather extremities

Speaker:

-     Mr Barnabas Gan, Economist, OCBC Bank

10.30am

Q&A Session

-     Mr Xie Dongming, Economist, Vice President, OCBC Bank

-     Mr Barnabas Gan, Economist, OCBC Bank

11:00am

Programme Ends

 

September 2016:

Programme Outline

6:00pm

Dinner / Registration

7:00pm

Welcome Address

7:10pm

Deciphering China's Economy

To many external observers, China and its economy is often seen as a riddle and mystery. The general lack of clear communication from Chinese policymakers compounds further such impression. This potentially leads not only to judgmental errors but also missed investment opportunities. In this session, we use available data and look at ways to answer some of the commonly asked questions about the Chinese economy. Among others, can we trust the Chinese data? How bad is debt and leverage in China? How about capital outflows and RMB depreciation / devaluation?

Speaker:

-          Suan Teck Kin, CFA, Economist, Global Economics & Markets Research, United Overseas Bank Group

7:40pm

Tax Outlook on Businesses in Europe

Amidst economic uncertainties and political changes in Europe, how will businesses and investments in this continent be affected? What can they do to hold up or take advantage of opportunities and mitigate risks? EY leaders will share insights from the tax viewpoint, including transfer pricing implications and tax impact of Brexit on centralised operating models plus more.

Speakers:

-     Henry Syrett, Partner, Transfer Pricing Services, EY

-     Billy Thorne, Senior Manager, UK Tax Desk, Global Tax Desk Network – Asia-Pacific, EY

8.15pm

The Global Oil and Gas Market Outlook and Economic Impact on ASEAN Countries

The slump in world oil and gas prices has created significant negative shocks for some ASEAN energy exporting nations, including Malaysia, Myanmar and Brunei. Singapore’s economy has also been hit by the slump in world oil prices, particularly due to the impact on the marine and offshore engineering industry. The outlook for the world oil and gas market over 2017-2020 and impact effects on ASEAN economies will be assessed.

Speaker:

-     Rajiv Biswas, Asia-Pacific Chief Economist, IHS Markit

8:45pm

Panel Discussion / Q&A session

Panelists:

-     Suan Teck Kin, CFA, Economist, Global Economics & Markets Research, United Overseas Bank Group

-     Henry Syrett, Partner, Transfer Pricing Services, EY

-     Billy Thorne, Senior Manager, UK Tax Desk, Global Tax Desk Network – Asia-Pacific, EY

-     Rajiv Biswas, Asia-Pacific Chief Economist, IHS Markit

Moderator:

-     Mr Alex Ho, Treasurer and Board Member, CFA Singapore

9:15pm

Programme Ends

 

January 2016:

Programme Outline

6:00pm

Dinner / Registration

7:00pm

Welcome Address

7:10pm

Macroeconomic Outlook

Speaker:

Mr Manu Bhaskaran, Director of Centennial Group; Chief Executive, Centennial Asia Advisors

-     Asian growth prospects are looking up as the G3 recovers and the domestic headwinds that hurt growth in 2015 start to fade;

-     As the Fed raises rates and the US Dollar appreciates, there could be more financial stresses in countries where corporate and household debt levels rose and where there are imbalances such as real estate bubbles or external deficits; and

-     Political risks remain a concern as well.

7:30pm

2016 Themes for Risk Management

Speaker:

Ms Suprita Vohra, Director, Barclays Investment Bank

2015 has been a year of firsts, and a year of contrasts. We saw unprecedented levels of global M&A activity exceeding $4T. We also saw severe shocks to the emerging markets, where key currencies like Brazilian real, South African rand and Russian ruble slumped to all time weakest. Oil & iron ore are at 10 year lows with bleak prospects going into 2016. Markets will evolve alongside the first fed hike and the sharpest RMB depreciation in 10 years while juggling unprecedented negative swap spreads - to name a few landscape shifting changes that every risk manager and CFO will be thinking about. Periods of market volatility will almost certainly be seen this year, and we discuss a few strategies to help navigate and protect our margins from these headwinds.

7:50pm

Challenges and Opportunities in 2016

Speaker:

Ms Ng Hsueh Ling, Chief Executive Officer, Keppel REIT Management Limited

Across global markets, the year 2015 has been described as one plagued with uncertainties and volatilities. Our Singapore economy and office market were not spared as well. Occupancy in Singapore’s core CBD saw its second quarter of decline to 94.8% as at end-215, with rental rates moderating further. As one of Singapore’s key office S-REITs, a key question many investors ask about Keppel REIT is how it will maintain its high occupancy level and achieve fair rentals at the same time? On top of that, how will Keppel REIT manage the rising interest rate environment? Ms Ng will share some of these challenges facing Keppel REIT and how the Manager is proactively managing these issues as it aims to deliver sustained returns to its Unitholders.

8:10pm

Panel Discussion / Q&A session

Panelists:

  • Mr Manu Bhaskaran, Director of Centennial Group; Chief Executive, Centennial Asia Advisors
  • Ms Suprita Vohra, Director, Barclays Investment Bank
  • Ms Ng Hsueh Ling, Chief Executive Officer and Executive Director, Keppel REIT Management Limited

Moderator:

  • Mr Alex Ho, Treasurer and Board Member, CFA Singapore

8:30pm

Programme Ends